The U.S. is short more than 2 million homes as building activity still lags.
Nationwide home mortgage rates are near record lows. Employment rates are near record highs. And demand for housing is strong in most U.S. metro areas. You'd think homebuilding would be booming. But you'd be wrong. Single-family home construction across the country and in North Texas is nowhere close to reaching the levels we saw before the Great Recession. And homebuilding is likely to lag demand through the next three years, according to a new report by Zillow.
The real estate marketing firm and Pulsenomics surveyed economists, investment strategists and real estate professionals who said that home construction will remain below historic averages through at least 2022. Zillow estimates that nationwide homebuilding has lagged by more than 2 million houses during the last decade. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, we're short more than 40,000 homes from where we would have been if builders could have kept up with demand.
"Without new homes to meet population growth and replace an aging housing stock, homebuying is expected to move further out of reach," Zillow director of economic research Skylar Olsen said in the report. Zillow's findings are in line with what the National Association of Home Builders has been warning for the last few years — that builders can't produce enough houses.
In North Texas, the country's busiest homebuilding market, production for this cycle may have already peaked. Home starts in the area are down about 2,000 units this year from last year's peak, according to data from Residential Strategies. While homebuilding activity may catch up a bit, don't expect a D-FW building surge, Residential Strategies principal Ted Wilson said. "Even with the ultra-low mortgage rates restimulating the housing market, we are forecasting a similar flat market through 2020," Wilson said. "While the underlying demographics for D-FW remain very favorable, housing affordability continues to be the primary factor that controls for-sale housing growth." In other words, not enough North Texas buyers can afford the new homes builders are able to construct.
- Dallas Morning News, September 13, 2019
Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were ranked among the best U.S. real estate markets by WalletHub.
Half of the country's 10 best real estate markets have something in common — they're all North Texas communities. That's what researchers who prepared the 2019 Best Real Estate Markets report for personal finance website WalletHub found when they did their annual survey. Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were all in the top 10 ranking for the nation's hottest home markets. Denton came in at fifth place, and McKinney and Carrollton were number six and seven on the list. Allen was number nine.
Wallet Hub, September 9, 2019
Interesting Facts, You Tube 2019