Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
Rapid Home price growth in North Texas and in cities nationwide continued to break records at the start of the year, but economists expect the market could change its tune in the months ahead. Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March while national prices grew 20.6%, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. "Demand for homes has stubbornly kept ahead of supply this spring, even in the face of rapidly rising costs," said Dan Handy, an economic data analyst for Zillow. "This imbalance between supply and demand for homes this spring has been the key driver in home price growth that continues to set records month after month." The index compares sales price changes of specific properties over time. Case-Shiller's price estimate is considered more accurate than MLS home sales data which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.
Economists predict the rapid price growth could finally begin to slow in the coming months as buyer demand is softened by affordability challenges. "Mortgage costs are more than 50% higher than they were a year ago, and prospective buyers will likely start to rethink what they can afford," Handy said. "Sellers may already be responding, with the rate of price cuts now on the rise, to meet buyers where they are. Price growth will likely begin to come back towards earth as many buyers are priced out and inventory rises." Dallas-Fort Worth home showings were down 9% year over year in April and 11% since March, according to ShowingTime.
Nearly one in five sellers dropped prices during the four week period ended May 22, Redfin Corp. said in a report Thursday. Other measures of how hot the market is, including a house's time on market and the percentage of homes selling above listing price, have also plateaued. Consumers are contending with some of the highest mortgage rates in years, despite the dip in those figures in the past two weeks. Higher rates, coupled with economic uncertainty, are raising questions about whether the US housing boom has met its limit with signs emerging that the once-intense pace of the market could be decelerating.
Price drops are "becoming increasingly common" in some of the most popular housing markets across the United States. According to a new Redfin data. More than 20% of home sellers dropped their price in May in some of the best markets in the nation. "When mortgage rates were at or belw 3%, both local and out-of-town homebuyers were more than willing to tolerate high prices, but at more than 5%, many are now priced out," redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. "A home's price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, and when demand drops off and supply increases like it is now, rapid price increases evaporate quickly." Areas that saw a huge surge in migration and sharp increases in home prices over the past two years are now seeing "an abrupt drop-off in demand," which is forcing sellers to "drop their prices with increasing frequency," Fairweather said.
Sharply higher mortgage rates have caused a sudden pullback in home sales, and now sellers are rushing to get in before the red-hot market cools off dramatically. "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
Sellers clearly see the market softening. Pending home sales were down just over 9% from April 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. May 2022 will see a larger decrease. This index measures signed contracts on existing homes, not closings, so it is perhaps the most timely indicator of how buyers are reacting to higher mortgage rates. It marks the sixth straight month of sales declines and the slowest pace in nearly a decade.
Local housing supply is beginning to loosen, Realtor.com indicates
Dallas-Fort Worth is seeing a dramatic increase in homes up for sale over the last few weeks as many sellers look to take advantage of the market while it's still red hot. The number of active home listings last week spiked 41.6% from a year prior, the fifth consecutive week of gains, according to Realtor.com. Until April, the company posted supply declines in D-FW every week since March 2020.
The region saw the highest annual growth for any week on record since the company began tracking this figure in 2017.
New listings in D-FW rose 32.4% last week, signaling a huge influx of sellers putting homes on the market as summer approaches. "Sellers have been hearing for about two years what an amazing time it is for them to sell ... and they've seen their equity just grow like crazy," said Mike Reddell, senior executive vice president and managing director for Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Dallas. "With the stock market being wobbly and mortgage rates rising, I think sellers that have been thinking about this for a while, more of them are pulling the trigger and putting the house up for sale."
Reddell said if he were in a position to sell his house, he would do it right now.
Redfin reported May 15 that new listings throughout the U.S. climbed nearly twice as quickly as they did at the same time last year. "Rising mortgage rates have caused the housing market to shift, and now home sellers are in a hurry to find a buyer before demand weakens further," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin, said in a statement.
Mark Wolfe, broker and owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates, said he has seen a significant spike in listings over the past few months. In his home city of Coppell, he said, there would have been only about five or six homes on the market at any one time a few months ago. In just five days last week, he said, 21 homes went up for sale. "We've been a boom economy, and now with the economy showing signs of trouble, people want to still get the most for their dollar while they can if they think that the prices might go down," Wolfe said. "I don't know if that's going to happen. I doubt that's going to happen."
The market is nowhere near balanced between buyers and sellers. Dallas-Fort Worth had just under a month of home supply in April, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. A balanced market would have about six months' worth of inventory. The competitive pressures have sustained high price growth over the past few months. The median home in April sold for $425,576, up 25% from a year earlier. The number of sales in April was down 7% from a year ago, but the dollar volume increased 13% to $4.2 billion.
Rising mortgage rates combined with record-high home prices have drastically increased the monthly cost of buying a home. Homebuilders have also noticed demand cool down through the past few months. "We've been in an unrealistic market for two years, and we're probably headed back to a normal market," Wolfe said. "It might be nice to just have a healthy even market. I'm hopeful that's what we're going to go into."
Housing Prices in DFW and Austin Have Surged Dramatically
The last time the national housing bubble burst, Dallas-Fort Worth and the state of Texas emerged comparatively unscathed from the massive 2008 home price corrections and foreclosure wave that slammed most of the country, including other Sunbelt markets like San Diego, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas.
A big reason was that home prices in the Lone Star State didn't skyrocket in the early 2000s preceding the subprime-mortgage-induced smackdown by nearly as much as prices in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. Texas hadn't partied as hard as its Sunbelt compadres heading into the crash, so its hangover wasn't as bad.
This time, Texas — DFW and Austin especially — may not be so lucky if the national housing boom is a bubble and a popping ensues, a new study suggests. This time, housing prices in DFW and Austin, and to a lesser degree Houston and San Antonio, have surged, driven in large part by population and jobs growth spurred by companies large and small relocating to the state.
As of April 30, Austin was the second most overpriced housing market in the nation, and DFW was the 18th most overpriced, according to research by Florida Atlantic University. The recent heavy demand for homes put buyers at a "major disadvantage," said Ken H. Johnson, an economist in FAU's College of Business. To have an offer accepted, buyers had to outbid multiple competitors, he points out. Soaring prices fueled by the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and near-record-low mortgage rates have pushed the national housing market into a "crisis stage," and a reckoning is due, the Florida Atlantic researchers' latest report says.
On one hand, the reckoning will likely hit the areas of the country with the biggest run-ups the hardest. On the other hand, areas of the country with persistent inventory shortages and increases in population, such as Texas, Florida and parts of the Northwest, likely won't see as steep of declines in home values, the researchers say.
Plano and Prosper also rank in the Top 10 out of over 1,000 cities
Coppell, Plano and Prosper are the most popular housing submarkets in North Texas — and among the tops in the nation — as suburbs shot past major-metro cores nationally and in Dallas-Fort Worth coming out of the worst of the pandemic.
Pricey suburban locales near major cities rose to the top of Zillow's nationwide list of most popular places to buy a home. In the Dallas-Fort Worth metro, Zillow found Coppell tops the pop chart. The typical home in Coppell is worth $565,930 and has seen 7% price growth in the first quarter of 2022, according to Zillow. Coppell home values are up 24% year over year. Coppell ranked as the fourth most popular place in the nation to start 2022.
Following Coppell in the North Texas rankings is Plano, where the typical home is worth $513,325 and has seen 10% growth in the first quarter of 2022. Plano home values are up 33% year over year. Prosper ranked third in the DFW market, with a typical home value of $774,456. That's up 13% in the first quarter of 2022 and 45% year over year. Frisco ranked fourth and Carrollton fifth in Zillow's popularity contest, with typical home values of $661,460 and $410,270, respectively. Those values are up 13% for Q1 2022 and 39% year over year in Frisco, and up 9% for the quarter and 28% for the year in Carrollton.
The numbers: Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in April for the fourth month in a row to the lowest level since the pandemic owing to high prices and soaring mortgage rates.
New sales slowed to a 591,000 annual rate from 709,000 in the prior month, the government said Tuesday. That's how many homes would change hands in a full year if the number of sales were the same in every month as they were in April.
Big picture: The red-hot housing market was bound to cool off after mortgage rates jumped from just 2.75% in the fall for a 30-year fixed to more than 5.25% in mid-May. Low mortgage rates had made it easier for buyers to purchase a home despite record prices. Builders, for their part, still aren't producing enough homes to meet demand. High material costs, supply and labor shortages and lack of cheap lots are among the constraints holding back construction. A slower housing market is also likely to weigh on the broader economy. When people buy homes, they also need to buy lots of stuff to furnish it.
Key details: Sales fell in all four major regions of the country, but the largest decline occurred in the South, where about half of all new homes are built. Sales sank 20% in the South.
reverse the upsurge in prices over the past few years.